1* Free MLB Pick on Astros/Rays OVER 7.5

I really like the value with the OVER 7.5 in tonight's ALDS matchup between the Astros and Rays. Houston will send out Justin Verlander, while the Rays turn to 'opener' Diego Castillo. 

Verlander was sensational in Game 1 in this series, as he held Tampa Bay to just 1 hit over 7 shutout innings. I don't think he's going to be bad by any means, but chances are he's not quite as sharp throwing on just 3-days rest. We also just saw the Rays put up 10 runs at home in Game 3. 

As for Castilo this will be his first time serving as the opener since late August. Last 3 starts he's made have not been great. He's got a 10.39 ERA and 1.848 WHIP in his last 3 starts. Just too much fire-power with that Houston lineup for them to not put up at least 5 runs in this matchup. 

OVER is 40-24 in the Rays last 64 home games with a total of 7 to 8.5 runs, 13-4 in Castillo's last 17 starts over the last 2 seasons and 5-1 in the Astros last 6 division road playoff games. Take the OVER! 

MLB SYSTEM OF THE DAY: Since 2004, in the playoffs, a hot team off of 2+ straight wins in their last 3 games is 243-197 55.2% +50.57 units SU +9.1% roi when facing a cold team off of 2 or fewer wins in their last 3 games. - Active today on the Astros